Pemex: Energy Sovereignty or Risk to the Sovereign

Pemex reached the first quarter of 2026 in a critical situation, reporting losses of 46 billion pesos, financial debt close to 79 billion dollars, and liquid hydrocarbon production of barely 1.65 million barrels per day, well below the official target. Added to this were accidents, fires, and spills at key facilities, reflecting not only financial fragility, but also operational deterioration and deterioration in industrial safety.

These results dismantle the logic that prevailed between 2018 and 2024, the idea that it was enough to return absolute control over production, assignments, and budget to Pemex; in addition to reducing its fiscal burden and transferring public resources to it, in order to rescue it in six years.

The accumulated government support was enormous, between fiscal benefits and foregone oil revenues. However, production continued to fall and the company ended up more dependent on the State, with less operational capacity and without reversing the structural decline of its fields.

Pemex Inherited Liabilities and Losses Despite Fiscal Support

The model promoted during the previous administration sought to recentralize the energy sector around Pemex. Oil rounds were suspended, open competition was halted, and the state-owned oil company was favored as the axis of energy sovereignty. Although the Profit-Sharing Duty was reduced and transfers for debt, refining, and infrastructure increased, the productivity of the support was low.

Pemex failed to increase production or improve profitability, and ended up with greater liabilities, debts to suppliers, and fiscal dependence.

The administration of Claudia Sheinbaum inherited a financially exhausted company and began a different shift. The 2024 constitutional reform transformed Pemex into a State Public Enterprise and eliminated part of the regulatory architecture created in 2013.

The new approach seeks to prioritize liquidity, refinancing, and financial restructuring through a new fiscal regime, mixed contracts, and extraordinary government support. However, the results have not been sufficient either, production remains below targets and the company continues to report losses even in an international environment of high oil prices.

At this point, the problem ceased to be exclusively a business problem and began to affect the sovereign. Growing transfers to Pemex have reduced the State’s net oil revenue and put pressure on Mexico’s public finances. Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P have explicitly linked the country’s fiscal deterioration to the permanent support for the oil company.

While major international oil companies took advantage of the recent upward cycle in crude oil prices to generate record profits, Pemex continued losing money because of its debt, low productivity, and operational problems.

Saving Pemex Requires Public Value, Not Political Symbolism

The central conclusion is that saving Pemex only makes sense if the objective is to restore public value for Mexico and not simply to preserve the company as a political symbol. That would imply establishing clear metrics for:

  • Profitability, production, and safety.
  • Conditioning any fiscal support.
  • Segmenting profitable businesses from those that destroy value.
  • Recovering competition and credible technical regulation.
  • Prioritizing maintenance and industrial safety.

The model that gave Pemex resources, fiscal relief, regulatory control, and unrestricted political support has already been tested, and the result was not energy sovereignty, but growing pressure on the country’s sovereign rating.


This article was originally published by La Prensa OEM.
Date: June 5, 2026
Link: https://oem.com.mx/la-prensa/analisis/opinion-por-paul-alejandro-sanchez-30370677 [Online]

The Oil Resurgence of America, Without Mexico

America, as a continent, is experiencing an oil resurgence. Not only in the United States, which with the Shale revolution over the last 20 years increased its production to such a degree that it has become a net exporter of natural gas, reduced its crude oil imports and, for months, surpassed the production of Saudi Arabia and Russia.

We can observe the same case in Canada, where it not only has the second-largest proven reserves globally, but has also increased its oil production to such a degree, particularly in the province of Alberta, that it has given rise to major infrastructure projects for the export of gas and petroleum products.

But it does not stop there. Brazil has become one of the main players outside OPEC, increasing its production by taking advantage of its discoveries in ultra-deep waters and making use of the state machinery and Petrobras. This development now positions it as the main oil producer in Latin America.

Following the development in the Southern Cone, the results of investments in Guyana are beginning to be seen, a country without oil resources that now produces more barrels than other economies. Similar situations can be observed in Colombia and Argentina. Vaca Muerta has boosted Argentina’s natural gas production, and in Colombia new rounds have been developed under a model similar to Brazil’s, while Ecopetrol, the national company, also serves as one of the main players in the country’s oil sector.

Although Venezuela is a particular case, it is expected that by 2030, now under the new governance conditions established with the departure of President Maduro, the country’s resources will begin to be developed more rapidly, surpassing Mexico.

The oil resurgence of America, however, is leaving Mexico out. The country not only faces a decline in oil production that over the last 20 years has fallen by more than 60%, but the projections under the institutional mechanisms and announced projects do not allow the country to recover its position.

From what can be observed across the continent, the institutional designs are varied, from open-access mechanisms such as in the United States, to licensing-round models such as in Colombia, from countries without state-owned companies such as Guyana to countries with a strong state-owned oil company that leads the sector such as Brazil. The correct recipe is not the protection of resources through a state monopoly, but a clear model that allows development by taking advantage of public and private resources and promoting the development of essential infrastructure and markets.

Even if Mexico’s oil-sector design were changed today, the delay we have compared with other countries in America is evident and is such that the results would not be observed quickly, but perhaps until after 2030. However, the longer it takes us, as a nation, to make those decisions, the more difficult it will be for our country to begin getting back on track.


This article was originally published by La Prensa OEM.
Date: April 24, 2026
Link: https://oem.com.mx/la-prensa/analisis/opinion-por-paul-alejandro-sanchez-el-resurgimiento-petrolero-de-america-sin-mexico-29654153 [Online]

Let Us Prepare for Cyberattacks






The accelerated advance in information and communication technologies in the modern world that has driven the interconnectivity of the world —from people to markets— and has greatly facilitated communication, real-time monitoring and automation, also has its risks.

In the last five years, according to the Global Risks Report of the World Economic Forum, cyberattacks, data theft and electronic fraud have become a risk with a high probability of occurrence and no industry, including the energy industry, is safe.

Perhaps you remember, in 2019 Pemex suffered a cyberattack called ransomware, which basically is a play on words to say something like kidnapping or ransom app. The fact is that a group of hackers found a vulnerability in Pemex’s outgoing connections; those digital ports that equipment uses to connect to YouTube, Netflix or even the internet.

Well then, once access to the company’s internal network was gained, the malicious software began to do its job: encrypt all the files in the company’s internal cloud. That is, it established a lock on the file system and they can only be unlocked with a complex string. All the files. From emails to official documents and databases.

It is estimated that the ransom requested from Pemex was close to 5 million dollars in cryptocurrencies, which makes it very difficult to track the perpetrators. However, according to statements from Mexico’s oil company, the ransom was not paid and some systems took several months to be completely restored.

Cyberattacks Recently Affected the Price of Gasoline in the United States

A couple of weeks ago another company, now in the United States, that operates the main refined-products transport pipeline from the Gulf of Mexico to the East Coast of the country, was attacked. The Colonial pipeline is made up of almost 9,000 kilometers in length and transports 2.5 million barrels per day. As a result of the cyberattack, the pipeline lasted five days out of service.

This put gasoline prices in the United States in trouble, which registered their most important increase since 2014, when the international fall in oil prices began. Some news sites even reported panic buying by American motorists who filled gallons, water tanks and even plastic bags.

At first, Colonial decided not to pay the ransom; however, due to these pressures the company gave in and ended up paying around 5 million dollars. The same amount that was requested from Pemex at the beginning.

If we consider what was indicated by the World Economic Forum, this type of risk will become more common every day and the ransoms higher every day. Companies allocate a large part of their income to increase their cybersecurity and hackers will dedicate more and more resources to maintaining attacks because they constitute an opportunity to make good money.

A solution that companies such as Google, Sony or Microsoft have implemented is to create reward programs for hackers who use the platform to report vulnerabilities in the security of their systems in exchange for a payment. With this, companies get ahead and can block latent failures. This is putting the community to work with a common objective.

In Mexico, in the energy sector, it would be necessary to ask about the state of the security of Cenace, Cenagas; CFE or Pemex itself, because an attack like these could happen again at any moment. Even in our homes: can you imagine someone hacking Alexa or putting your computer to mine bitcoin? Or, in the future, can you imagine someone hacking the robot that delivers pizzas?

Without a doubt, this is one of the risks of a future interconnected in real time throughout the globe.


This article was originally published by Business Insider México.
Date: May 18, 2021
Original Link: https://businessinsider.mx/preparemonos-ciberataques-industria-electrica-energia-circular-paul-alejandro-sanchez/ [offline]
Archived Link: https://web.archive.org/web/20210619041707/https://businessinsider.mx/preparemonos-ciberataques-industria-electrica-energia-circular-paul-alejandro-sanchez/ [Archived]