The Eyes on the Global Natural Gas Market

The effect that conflicts in the Middle East have on the oil and natural gas markets is well known; what is particularly relevant on this occasion is where the effect is taking place. While oil is recording contained increases of less than 10%, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is facing a significant shock, mainly following QatarEnergy’s announcement that it is suspending its LNG production after attacks on facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, and today it extended the measure to products such as urea, polymers, and methanol. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route, has seen its traffic fall drastically due to Iranian threats, leaving hundreds of vessels stranded. This asymmetry highlights vulnerabilities in the global LNG supply chain. The measure is not minor; QatarEnergy represents close to 20% of the world’s LNG supply, almost all of it passing through Hormuz and heading to Asia.

In recent years, natural gas has acquired greater relevance as a transition fuel since it is more efficient and has lower emissions than coal, which has driven investments to promote electricity generation in Asia using natural gas mainly obtained through LNG vessels. The global LNG market has grown to such an extent that even the United States has strengthened its position with LNG exports reaching records in 2025 and surpassing shipments by pipeline to Mexico and Canada. In this way, LNG has consolidated itself as the main vector of international trade, allowing flexible shipments.

The war disproportionately affects LNG because it has a fairly complex logistics chain that requires specialized terminals, there are limited vessels and they are usually tied to long-term contracts, so there is a lack of quick alternatives. Likewise, there are no massive floating inventories or routes equivalent to those of oil. This generates immediate impacts, producing increases in European benchmark prices of almost 50% and in Asia of 25%.

Japan, South Korea, China, and India receive most of Qatari LNG and face risks to up to 30% of their usual supply, with intense competition for alternatives. Europe, limited by sanctions on Russia and the situation in Ukraine, is threatened by an increase in electricity costs and effects on industry. Russia could increase shipments to China through pipelines, but with restricted capacity. The United States, as the largest exporter, can redirect volumes to allies, consolidating influence although with logistical limits and domestic prices on the rise.

What stands out from this crisis is that LNG, despite its growing demand and its position as that fuel for the energy transition, is also exposed to geopolitical bottlenecks that, for the moment, oil has mitigated better given its inventories and diversification of production. Nevertheless, if the conflict continues, a reordering is likely, which would imply bringing coal-fired power plants back into operation, facing high energy costs in Asia and Europe, and a call to strengthen resilience on critical routes. Energy logistics continues to be a decisive factor in global stability and the Middle East a key actor in energy markets. In the case of Mexico, for now, we benefit from the proximity to production in the United States, so a shortage is not foreseen, although, without setting aside, that a possible increase in benchmark prices could hit the country’s tariff structure, whose electricity generation matrix depends on natural gas for more than 60%.

This article was originally published by La Prensa OEM.
Date: March 21, 2026
Link: https://oem.com.mx/la-prensa/analisis/opinion-por-paul-alejandro-sanchez-campos-los-ojos-en-el-mercado-global-de-gas-natural-29260064 [Online]

OPEC+ Cuts Again

This Sunday the news was spread that OPEC+ is planning a new voluntary cut led by Saudi Arabia that by itself would reduce 500,000 barrels per day. The members of OPEC and their allies could reduce between 1.1 and 1.6 million barrels per day of crude in the world market, which depends on Russia contributing another 500,000 barrels per day to the reduction. In any case, the cut would enter into force starting in May and would extend throughout all that remains of 2023.

Of course this is not a coincidence. In the midst of the financial chaos caused by the inflationary escalation, the continuous rise of the reference rate and the blow to banking institutions, it is not the best moment for energy prices to come back on the offensive. But it is clear that the surprise cut is directed at the United States for a couple of reasons particularly.

“It is clear that the surprise cut is directed at the United States.”

On the one hand, in October of last year the United States promised Saudi Arabia that it would not let oil prices collapse and that, once prices touched $75 dollars per barrel in the Brent reference, the government of the United States would begin to fill its strategic reserve to keep the price stable.

However, when the price of Brent fell below the mark in mid-March, the Biden government showed little interest in beginning the purchase of oil to refill the strategic reserve and even declared that perhaps, toward the end of 2023, they could begin with the purchase to observe the behavior of global markets derived from the recent financial shocks.

On the other hand, just last week the United States Energy Information Agency published that in 2022 the United States broke a record of crude exports, reaching 3.6 million barrels per day, which represented an increase of 22% compared with 2021.

Faced with greater production of American oil in the world and with prices falling in comparison with the previous year, it seemed like a good moment to begin filling the strategic reserve of the United States. This would allow reducing the circulating crude and stopping the fall of international prices.

These two events could have had political implications, or that is what is rumored in the circles that follow the issue. That Biden did not quickly fulfill his word to maintain the international price of oil contributes to the deterioration of relations between the two nations.

For now, the price of oil in the main references has risen around five dollars per barrel after the announcement. It is too soon to know whether this price will be maintained in the future or how the United States will respond or, even, whether the countries, including Russia, comply with the voluntary reduction, but what is a fact is that this occurs at a complicated moment due to global inflationary pressure.

This article was originally published by Energía a Debate.
Date: April 3, 2023
Link: https://energiaadebate.com/la-opep-recorta-de-nuevo/ [Online]

Let Us Prepare for Cyberattacks






The accelerated advance in information and communication technologies in the modern world that has driven the interconnectivity of the world —from people to markets— and has greatly facilitated communication, real-time monitoring and automation, also has its risks.

In the last five years, according to the Global Risks Report of the World Economic Forum, cyberattacks, data theft and electronic fraud have become a risk with a high probability of occurrence and no industry, including the energy industry, is safe.

Perhaps you remember, in 2019 Pemex suffered a cyberattack called ransomware, which basically is a play on words to say something like kidnapping or ransom app. The fact is that a group of hackers found a vulnerability in Pemex’s outgoing connections; those digital ports that equipment uses to connect to YouTube, Netflix or even the internet.

Well then, once access to the company’s internal network was gained, the malicious software began to do its job: encrypt all the files in the company’s internal cloud. That is, it established a lock on the file system and they can only be unlocked with a complex string. All the files. From emails to official documents and databases.

It is estimated that the ransom requested from Pemex was close to 5 million dollars in cryptocurrencies, which makes it very difficult to track the perpetrators. However, according to statements from Mexico’s oil company, the ransom was not paid and some systems took several months to be completely restored.

Cyberattacks Recently Affected the Price of Gasoline in the United States

A couple of weeks ago another company, now in the United States, that operates the main refined-products transport pipeline from the Gulf of Mexico to the East Coast of the country, was attacked. The Colonial pipeline is made up of almost 9,000 kilometers in length and transports 2.5 million barrels per day. As a result of the cyberattack, the pipeline lasted five days out of service.

This put gasoline prices in the United States in trouble, which registered their most important increase since 2014, when the international fall in oil prices began. Some news sites even reported panic buying by American motorists who filled gallons, water tanks and even plastic bags.

At first, Colonial decided not to pay the ransom; however, due to these pressures the company gave in and ended up paying around 5 million dollars. The same amount that was requested from Pemex at the beginning.

If we consider what was indicated by the World Economic Forum, this type of risk will become more common every day and the ransoms higher every day. Companies allocate a large part of their income to increase their cybersecurity and hackers will dedicate more and more resources to maintaining attacks because they constitute an opportunity to make good money.

A solution that companies such as Google, Sony or Microsoft have implemented is to create reward programs for hackers who use the platform to report vulnerabilities in the security of their systems in exchange for a payment. With this, companies get ahead and can block latent failures. This is putting the community to work with a common objective.

In Mexico, in the energy sector, it would be necessary to ask about the state of the security of Cenace, Cenagas; CFE or Pemex itself, because an attack like these could happen again at any moment. Even in our homes: can you imagine someone hacking Alexa or putting your computer to mine bitcoin? Or, in the future, can you imagine someone hacking the robot that delivers pizzas?

Without a doubt, this is one of the risks of a future interconnected in real time throughout the globe.

This article was originally published by Business Insider México.
Date: May 18, 2021
Original Link: https://businessinsider.mx/preparemonos-ciberataques-industria-electrica-energia-circular-paul-alejandro-sanchez/ [offline]
Archived Link: https://web.archive.org/web/20210619041707/https://businessinsider.mx/preparemonos-ciberataques-industria-electrica-energia-circular-paul-alejandro-sanchez/ [Archived]