The disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have caused shocks in global energy markets, which have resulted in fuel shortages in several net-importing countries, which have had to implement fuel rationing measures at service stations. In Thailand, service stations recorded panic buying and applied limits on sales or bans on filling containers. In Indonesia, authorities confirmed sufficient diesel reserves after stopping their imports of this product, although they warned about pressure on subsidies that could affect other budgetary programs.
Countries such as Sri Lanka established mandatory gasoline rationing through a QR code system that limits weekly purchases to 15 liters per private vehicle. Pakistan, for its part, reduced the workweek to four days for public employees and cut fuel allocations for government agencies by 50 percent.
Mexico, however, maintains a degree of security in fuel supply thanks to its proximity to the United States market and to its local oil production, which allows stable flows of refined products through regional supply chains. However, the price has increased significantly in the last month; diesel went from an average price of $26.35 pesos on February 28 to $28.73 on March 27, registering an increase of more than $2.00 at the pump. Similarly, premium gasoline went from $25.70 to $27.77, while regular gasoline still remains, in general, at the voluntary cap of $23.99.
Considering the effects on the international price, the SHCP has had to publish new subsidies since March 13, in order to avoid a greater increase in prices, beginning with a 35.21% reduction in the IEPS on diesel, which increased to 70.28% for this week. This means that, in addition to the $2.00 increase in the average price of diesel, the Treasury stops collecting an additional $5.17 pesos per liter, plus its corresponding 16% VAT. The situation is more moderate for gasoline, where the subsidy for this week is $1.55 for regular and $0.45 for premium.
Although the mechanism seeks to contain the transfer of international increases to the final consumer through weekly tax subsidies, the current policy follows the pattern applied in 2022 and 2023, when IEPS subsidies generated a total revenue loss of up to 297 billion pesos.
The current adjustments to the IEPS respond to the same logic of balancing domestic prices and external volatility derived from the disruption in Hormuz; the underlying idea is not to pass on the full effect and generate inflation, as is beginning to be observed in freer markets such as the United States. However, it still represents a fiscal risk for the country’s public finances, which no longer have as many export surpluses as in previous years.
The evolution of maritime flows will determine the duration of these measures in Mexico and in the rest of the affected countries. However, an easy end is not in sight soon, so it is possible that we will first see additional subsidies for diesel and gasoline.
This article was originally published by La Prensa OEM.
Date: April 6, 2026
Link: https://oem.com.mx/la-prensa/analisis/opinion-por-paul-alejandro-sanchez-campos-regresan-los-estimulos-a-los-combustibles-pero-con-el-riesgo-fiscal-de-siem-29348527 [Online]