The natural gas strategy presented on April 8 by the federal government takes up a known diagnosis, but now with a greater sense of urgency. Mexico arrives at this discussion with a relevant resource base, but with clear signs of depletion in its proven reserves and a growing dependence on foreign supply.
According to the latest official reserves report as of January 1, 2024, the country had a natural gas reserve-to-production ratio of 6.7 years in the proven reserves category. This indicator, which measures how many years production could be sustained at the current rate, already reflected a limited position. An additional element, which is not minor, must be added to this. Since then, equivalent updates have not been published, so it is reasonable to consider that this figure may have decreased. If production has been maintained and the incorporation of new reserves has not been sufficient, the horizon could today be closer to four or five years.
This deterioration is not an isolated phenomenon. National natural gas production has shown a downward trend over the last decade, while demand has grown driven by the electricity sector and industry. The result is a greater dependence on imports, mainly from the United States. Today, close to three quarters of national consumption comes from abroad, with a significant concentration in gas produced in Texas. This configuration has made it possible to supply the country at relatively low costs, which has been good news for the CFE and consumers, but has also increased exposure to external conditions.
The discussion about how to reverse this trend necessarily goes through the nature of the available resources. A relevant part of Mexico’s gas potential is found in unconventional formations, particularly in shale. Its development requires techniques such as hydraulic fracturing. This is not a minor technical decision, but rather a definition of energy policy. Without the development of these resources, the margin for increasing national production is limited.
At this point the environmental and social debate emerges. Hydraulic fracturing has been questioned because of its possible impacts on water use, waste management, and the integrity of aquifers. International experience shows that these risks can be managed with regulation, technology, and oversight, but it also shows that social acceptance is a determining factor. In Mexico, this debate has been particularly sensitive and has conditioned policy decisions in recent years. Added to this is a context of institutional distrust. Recent episodes, such as the spill in the Gulf of Mexico, have made evident the difficulty of clearly identifying the causes, determining responsibilities and, where appropriate, imposing sanctions. This type of precedent directly affects public perception regarding the capacity of the State and of operators to manage environmental risks in more complex projects.
The case of Texas offers a useful reference. The development of unconventional gas was not the result of a single centralized policy, but of an ecosystem with multiple operators, something like wildcatters, who took risks, innovated, and scaled up production rapidly. This dynamism made it possible to transform the regional energy structure in little more than a decade. Replicating that process is not automatic, but it does show the importance of the diversity of actors and of the proper incentives.
This is where the real discussion comes in. Pemex concentrates most of the country’s reserves and will continue to be a central actor. However, its cost structure, its operational burden, and its financial restrictions limit its capacity to rapidly develop complex resources. This does not imply that the projects are not valuable for the country. There may be developments that are not profitable under strictly corporate criteria, but that are profitable from a national energy and economic perspective.
The critical point is how the sector is organized to close that gap. The pace at which Mexico can incorporate new reserves and increase its production will depend on the fiscal arrangement, investment schemes, and the degree of participation of other operators. Opening up to additional capital and capabilities is not an ideological issue in itself, but rather a variable that directly affects development times.
The strategy presented opens that conversation at a moment when the room for maneuver is narrowing. The challenge is not only to produce more gas, but to do so under conditions that balance energy security, economic viability, and social acceptance. The result will depend less on the diagnosis, which is known, and more on the decisions that are made from now on.
This article was originally published by La Prensa OEM.
Date: April 10, 2026
Link: https://oem.com.mx/la-prensa/analisis/opinion-por-paul-alejandro-sanchez-campos-gas-natural-en-mexico-decisiones-urgentes-29415128 [Online]