The effect that conflicts in the Middle East have on the oil and natural gas markets is well known; what is particularly relevant on this occasion is where the effect is taking place. While oil is recording contained increases of less than 10%, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is facing a significant shock, mainly following QatarEnergy’s announcement that it is suspending its LNG production after attacks on facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, and today it extended the measure to products such as urea, polymers, and methanol. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route, has seen its traffic fall drastically due to Iranian threats, leaving hundreds of vessels stranded. This asymmetry highlights vulnerabilities in the global LNG supply chain. The measure is not minor; QatarEnergy represents close to 20% of the world’s LNG supply, almost all of it passing through Hormuz and heading to Asia.
In recent years, natural gas has acquired greater relevance as a transition fuel since it is more efficient and has lower emissions than coal, which has driven investments to promote electricity generation in Asia using natural gas mainly obtained through LNG vessels. The global LNG market has grown to such an extent that even the United States has strengthened its position with LNG exports reaching records in 2025 and surpassing shipments by pipeline to Mexico and Canada. In this way, LNG has consolidated itself as the main vector of international trade, allowing flexible shipments.
The war disproportionately affects LNG because it has a fairly complex logistics chain that requires specialized terminals, there are limited vessels and they are usually tied to long-term contracts, so there is a lack of quick alternatives. Likewise, there are no massive floating inventories or routes equivalent to those of oil. This generates immediate impacts, producing increases in European benchmark prices of almost 50% and in Asia of 25%.
Japan, South Korea, China, and India receive most of Qatari LNG and face risks to up to 30% of their usual supply, with intense competition for alternatives. Europe, limited by sanctions on Russia and the situation in Ukraine, is threatened by an increase in electricity costs and effects on industry. Russia could increase shipments to China through pipelines, but with restricted capacity. The United States, as the largest exporter, can redirect volumes to allies, consolidating influence although with logistical limits and domestic prices on the rise.
What stands out from this crisis is that LNG, despite its growing demand and its position as that fuel for the energy transition, is also exposed to geopolitical bottlenecks that, for the moment, oil has mitigated better given its inventories and diversification of production. Nevertheless, if the conflict continues, a reordering is likely, which would imply bringing coal-fired power plants back into operation, facing high energy costs in Asia and Europe, and a call to strengthen resilience on critical routes. Energy logistics continues to be a decisive factor in global stability and the Middle East a key actor in energy markets. In the case of Mexico, for now, we benefit from the proximity to production in the United States, so a shortage is not foreseen, although, without setting aside, that a possible increase in benchmark prices could hit the country’s tariff structure, whose electricity generation matrix depends on natural gas for more than 60%.
This article was originally published by La Prensa OEM.
Date: March 21, 2026
Link: https://oem.com.mx/la-prensa/analisis/opinion-por-paul-alejandro-sanchez-campos-los-ojos-en-el-mercado-global-de-gas-natural-29260064 [Online]