What NASA Can Teach CFE

"They were building a Ferrari for every launch when a Honda Accord could get the job done."
— Elon Musk

On May 30, the first private space mission was launched by Elon Musk’s company SpaceX, whose founder is also known for creating Tesla. The mission carried two NASA astronauts to the International Space Station. The launch represented the first crewed spaceflight departing from the United States in nearly a decade and what some have called the beginning of the private space race. Can this teach us any lessons for CFE?

It would be difficult to imagine an area more strategic for a government than its space program, particularly when that program is closely tied to an arms race and ideological competition under the perceived threats of the Cold War. As such, it received substantial public funding to sustain its operations.

However, in the more than sixty years since its creation, the world has changed dramatically in political, economic, and social terms. The welfare state model gradually became strained, largely because of the growing resources required to sustain government structures, and with it came a reduction in the amounts governments could devote to strategic sectors.

For example, NASA’s budget declined from USD 43.554 billion to USD 22.559 billion between 1966 and 2020 (in constant 2014 dollars). As a result, the agency was forced to retire some of its most emblematic programs, including the crewed Space Shuttle Program, which operated for thirty years from 1981 to 2011. In total, the program completed 135 missions, each with a launch cost ranging from USD 450 million to USD 1.5 billion.

The most important lesson from the launch of SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft is that it cost approximately USD 50 million, only about 10 percent of the cost of the least expensive NASA Space Shuttle launch. As a result, NASA has decided to become one of the company’s principal customers for transporting astronauts into space.

In other words, NASA continues to carry out strategic activities in the space sector while concentrating its resources and efforts where they can generate the greatest value for the country and the world, such as the remote exploration of Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn, as well as deep-space exploration through its satellites. At the same time, it leaves launch services to private companies that can perform them more efficiently and at lower cost.

Viewed in this way, CFE could learn a great deal from NASA by focusing on the strategic areas that generate the highest value per unit of investment, such as transmission, distribution, telemetry, natural gas transportation, and natural gas marketing, among others. At the same time, it could move away from volumetric electricity generation targets that require the continued operation of expensive, inefficient, and highly polluting plants fueled by fuel oil and coal. Such generation could instead be replaced by low-cost clean and renewable energy, such as that procured through the Long-Term Electricity Auctions, benefiting both public health and consumers’ wallets.

Who knows? Instead of continuing to repair the legendary Volkswagen Beetle with a Ferrari-sized budget, perhaps CFE could accomplish far more for all Mexicans, just as NASA has done.

This article was originally published by Business Insider México.
Date: June 3, 2020
Original Link: https://businessinsider.mx/lo-que-la-nasa-puede-ensenarle-a-cfe-opinion-paul-alejandro-sanchez-energia-circular/ [offline]
Archived Link: https://web.archive.org/web/20210117004053/https://businessinsider.mx/lo-que-la-nasa-puede-ensenarle-a-cfe-opinion-paul-alejandro-sanchez-energia-circular/ [Archived]

What NASA Can Teach CFE


They were building a Ferrari for every launch, when it was possible that a Honda Accord could achieve it.

– Elon Musk

On May 30, the first private space mission was launched by Elon Musk’s company SpaceX, also founder of Tesla, which sent two NASA astronauts to the International Space Station. This launch represents the first trip departing from the United States in almost a decade and represents what some call the beginning of the private space race. Can this teach us some lessons for CFE?

It would be difficult for us to think of an area more strategic for a government than its space program, and even more so when it is intimately linked with an arms and ideological race before the perceived threat in times of the Cold War. And as such, it received large sums of public budget to operate.

However, in the more than 60 years since its creation, the world has changed a lot in political, economic and social aspects. The model of the welfare State was becoming exhausted, mainly because of the amount of resources required to sustain the government structure, and with it the large sums that governments could dedicate to these strategic sectors.

For example, NASA’s budget went from 43,554 million dollars to 22,559 million dollars between 1966 and 2020, in constant 2014 dollars. As a consequence, the agency has had to close some of its most emblematic programs, such as the manned space shuttle program that operated for 30 years from 1981 to 2011. In total, through this program, 135 trips were carried out that had a launch cost of between 450 and 1,500 million dollars.

The most important lesson from the SpaceX Dragon launch is that it cost 50 million dollars, only 10% of the cost of the cheapest launch of NASA’s space shuttles, in such a way that the agency has decided to become one of the company’s main clients to send astronauts into space.

That is, NASA continues developing strategic activities in space matters and dedicates its resources and efforts where it could obtain more value for the country and the world, such as the remote exploration of Mars, Jupiter and Saturn and the exploration of deep space with its space satellites, and leaves to private initiative the launches that can be done more economically for the agency.

Seen in this way, CFE could learn a lot from NASA, concentrating on the strategic areas that generate more value per unit of investment, such as transmission, distribution, telemetry, transportation and commercialization of natural gas, among others, and leaving behind those volumetric goals of electric energy generation that require keeping expensive, inefficient and polluting plants in operation, such as those that operate with fuel oil and coal, replacing that generation with clean and renewable energy at low costs like those obtained in the Long-Term Auctions for the benefit of our health and our pockets.

Who knows? Perhaps instead of trying to continue repairing the mythical Vocho with a Ferrari budget, CFE could achieve more, much more, for all Mexicans, just as NASA did.

This article was originally published by Business Insider México.
Date: June 3, 2020
Original Link: https://businessinsider.mx/lo-que-la-nasa-puede-ensenarle-a-cfe-opinion-paul-alejandro-sanchez-energia-circular/ [offline]
Archived Link: https://web.archive.org/web/20210117004053/https://businessinsider.mx/lo-que-la-nasa-puede-ensenarle-a-cfe-opinion-paul-alejandro-sanchez-energia-circular/[Archived]

Back to the Future

"1.21 Gigawatts!
How am I supposed to generate that much power? It's impossible!"
— Dr. Emmett Brown

Many of you will remember the 1985 film classic Back to the Future. In the movie, Marty McFly convinces Dr. Brown (“Doc”) that he traveled to the past using a time machine that Doc himself built in the future, and that it has run out of power. Eventually, Doc agrees to help Marty, but he faces a major challenge: generating 1.21 gigawatts (GW) to power the DeLorean.

In the mid-1980s, nuclear energy seemed extremely promising. It was considered the future and the only way to move beyond fossil fuels. Many things changed after the Chernobyl accident the following year, but that is another story.

Returning to the future: it is now 2020, pharmacies still do not sell plutonium, and many things have changed over the past 35 years. The future of energy is no longer centered on nuclear power, but rather on next-generation renewables, particularly solar and wind energy, combined with energy storage and hydrogen. That may well be the winning combination of the future.

Next-generation renewable energy technologies have become a defining feature of our present. Their expansion is no longer part of some distant future barely visible on the horizon, nor are their costs as prohibitive as they once were. Today, they can be found in homes, businesses, and industries alike. We can even see large portions of agricultural land beginning to use their available space to harvest sunlight.

If Doc from Back to the Future had to generate 1.21 GW to power the DeLorean using today’s technology, could renewable energy in Mexico help him? Let’s find out.

According to figures from Mexico’s Ministry of Energy, installed electricity generation capacity reached 79.60 GW by the end of 2019. This includes plants powered by fossil fuels, such as combined-cycle plants fueled by natural gas, conventional thermal plants, and internal combustion facilities that require diesel and fuel oil, as well as coal-fired power plants that, as their name suggests, use coal.

There is also hydroelectric power, which relies on dams and other water resources, and nuclear energy generated by the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) at the Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant in Veracruz. And, of course, there are solar photovoltaic, wind, and geothermal energy sources.

Solar photovoltaic capacity represented 4.37 percent of Mexico’s total installed capacity in 2019, equivalent to 3.4 GW. This means that if all of the country’s solar installations operated simultaneously for a few minutes, we could send Marty into the future nearly three times. If we add wind power, we could send him back to the future eight times.

Mexico’s renewable energy potential is so significant that on April 19 at midday, solar, wind, hydroelectric, and geothermal energy sources together supplied 33 percent of the electricity being consumed at that moment. Solar power alone contributed an average of 1.76 gigawatts every hour throughout the month, and I am confident that this is only the beginning.

At a time when renewable energy has become the subject of public debate, it is important to return to the future and leave the past behind. We can all help design strategies that enable the country to achieve a genuine energy transition, integrate more renewable energy, strengthen electrical grids, decentralize energy systems, and digitize consumption.

So, Doc, in the future pharmacies do not sell plutonium, but solar panels are very inexpensive and easy to find.

This article was originally published by Business Insider México.
Date: Mayo 27, 2020
Original Link: https://businessinsider.mx/volver-al-futuro-energias-renovables-mexico-opinion-paul-alejandro-sanchez-energia-circular [offline]
Archived Link: https://web.archive.org/web/20240227201720/https://businessinsider.mx/volver-al-futuro-energias-renovables-mexico-opinion-paul-alejandro-sanchez-energia-circular/[Archived]